I was in a $3/$5 No-Limit game earlier today. I'd been playing a tight game at a loose table, and had worked my $500 stack up to around $700 in two hours of play -- a pretty decent win rate. Then, this hand came up.
I was in the big blind. Action uncharacteristically folded all the way to a player in late position, who limped in for $5. He was a very poor player; he nearly qualified as a calling station. He was playing way too many hands, and generally playing them far too passively to walk away a winner in this game. Everyone else folded to the small blind, who called. I looked down at Queen of diamonds/Three of clubs; a truly dreadful hand. Since folding unfortunately wasn't an option, I merely checked and we went to the flop.
The dealer spread the Ace of clubs, Queen of hearts, Seven of diamonds; so I'd flopped middle pair. The small blind checked. I also checked, allowing the late position player to maintain his momentum. He didn't disappoint, putting out a $15 continuation bet. The small blind folded, and it was back to me.
I gave the matter some thought. Although it was possible that my opponent had paired the Ace, I felt that if he HAD an Ace, he would have come in for a raise preflop rather than just limp in. I'd seen him raise preflop before, so I knew it was the type of play he did. If I couldn't put him on an Ace, I had to call the flop bet. So I did.
The turn brought the Six of hearts. I checked again. The villain put out a $20 bet. I felt I was in the same situation as the previous street, so I called again.
The river was the Ace of spades. I checked again; villain put out $25. It was time for me to think it through some more.
First of all, with two aces on the board, it was now even LESS likely that my opponent also held an ace. There just aren't that many in the deck overall. And his river bet was ridiculously small, given the size of the pot at this point ($85). I was pretty certain now that I held the best hand.
I wondered about maybe putting out a value raise, but this brought its own complications. There's an important concept about river raises: You need to ask yourself, What are the chances my hand is good on those occasions when he CALLS? With this board, I lose to an Ace (of course), Kings, sets, and pretty much any Queen, since my kicker wouldn't play. If I raised, would he call with any hand that I beat? I couldn't imagine that he would. He would call whenever I'm beat, and fold whenever I'm not. So a raise wouldn't really accomplish anything.
I called, and showed my Queen-no-kicker. Villain showed Jack of clubs/Ten of clubs, and I pulled in the pot.
